In a speech on Tuesday evening, Trump said that the current tariffs on China "may harm the U.S. economy" and planned to negotiate with China to reduce tariffs to ease inflationary pressure. This statement is in sharp contrast to the previous hawkish remarks that "consider firing Fed Chair Powell". Global market sentiment reversed instantly, risk assets collectively revolved, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose violently, the market value of cryptocurrencies soared by more than $200 billion in a single day, and the U.S. dollar index rebounded strongly. This policy shift is reshaping global capital flows. The XBIT decentralized exchange platform interpreted it as a double positive of "trade war truce + monetary policy easing". The fear index (VIX) plummeted 18% in a single day, and funds poured into risky assets.

Epic rebound of U.S. stocks: The S&P 500 index soared 2.5%, the largest single-day increase this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 800 points, the Nasdaq broke through the 16,000 mark, and the market value of the seven major technology giants (Magnificent Seven) increased by more than $300 billion in total. AI concept stocks such as Tesla and Nvidia led the gains, and Tesla's stock price soared 8% in a single day, returning to above $250 per share.

The crypto market is surging: Bitcoin has reached $93,000 for the first time since early March, with a daily increase of more than 5%, and trading volume has surged to $45 billion, a new high since the FTX crash in November 2024. Ethereum broke through the key resistance level of $1,800, and the total locked volume (TVL) of the DeFi protocol increased by 12% in a single day. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) attracted $120 million in a single day, and institutional funds rushed into the market.

Commodity differentiation: The strengthening of the US dollar suppressed gold, and spot gold fell from a historical high of $2,430 to $2,395, a drop of 1.25%; international crude oil was boosted by demand expectations, and Brent Crude oil stood at $85/barrel, up 1.8%. The US dollar index rebounded from 102 to 103.5, non-US currencies fell across the board, and the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar depreciated by 300 points to 7.25.

Policy linkage effect: a "duet" of trade and monetary policy. Analysts from the XBIT decentralized exchange platform pointed out that the market carnival this time stems from the superposition of two policy signals.

Expectations of trade easing: Trump's softening of the tariff stance is seen as a signal of the phased repair of Sino-US relations. Goldman Sachs estimates that if the average US tariff on China drops from 20% to 10%, the decline in the price of Chinese goods exported to the US will drive the earnings growth of S&P 500 constituents by 1.5%.

Fed policy stabilization: Trump's rare concession to Powell suggests that the probability of a June rate cut by the Fed has increased. The CME "Fed Watch" tool shows that the market expects the probability of a September rate cut to jump from 58% to 72%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield once fell below 3.8%. "This is a typical reversal of the 'Trump trade'," said a cross-asset strategist from the XBIT decentralized trading platform. "The market has shifted from worrying about 'stagflation + hawkish rate hikes' to betting on 'tariff concessions + easing restarts', and risk appetite has fully returned."

This round of cryptocurrency surges is interpreted as a signal of institutional funds reconfiguration. The head of research at XBIT, a decentralized exchange platform, pointed out: "Bitcoin's breakthrough in the psychological barrier of $90,000 marks the end of the bear market liquidation phase. Institutions such as Fidelity and BlackRock are increasing their holdings through compliant channels to cope with potential stagflation hedging needs. It is worth noting that the issuance of stablecoin USDT has returned to $83 billion, suggesting that market leverage sentiment has cooled. XBIT decentralized exchange platform provides investors with a more convenient way to manage assets. Through the custody platform, investors can adjust their portfolios or cash out assets more quickly without worrying about access to cold wallets. The platform also cooperates with multiple exchanges and financial institutions to ensure the liquidity of assets and can quickly execute transactions when needed. 

Despite the high market sentiment, some institutions are skeptical about sustainability. XBIT warned that Trump's tariff policy has not yet formed a legal text, and China's response is cautious. If subsequent negotiations encounter obstacles, it may trigger profit-taking. In addition, the pace of the Fed's interest rate cuts still depends on inflation data, and market volatility may intensify before the release of the May CPI report. In the short term, the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and the Fed's June interest rate meeting will become the core variables of the market. In the medium and long term, whether the cryptocurrency market can continue to rise depends on the improvement of the regulatory framework and the increase in institutional adoption. The implementation of innovative tools such as Dubai's "Collateral Mirror Program" may open up new channels for institutional funds to enter the market.