According to Odaily Seer, the probability of a ceasefire between the US and Iran by March 31st, as reported by CoinMeta, briefly surged to 44% on Polymarket before falling back to approximately 16%, resulting in significant short-term volatility. Trump had previously stated that US-Iran dialogue was progressing well and that military action against Iranian energy infrastructure had been postponed; however, Iran subsequently denied any direct or indirect contact, calling the statements "psychological warfare." Meanwhile, Israel announced airstrikes on Tehran, further escalating geopolitical tensions and causing a rapid reversal in market expectations. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, anticipating changes before they are priced in.