Gate CBO: Beta can explain Bitcoin's past correlations, but alpha can determine Bitcoin's future.
According to Bijie.com, Gate CBO Kevin Lee released a special analysis on Cathie Wood's core viewpoint at Ark Investments that "Bitcoin's low beta value possesses both offensive and defensive attributes." He pointed out that Bitcoin's long-term value is unrelated to its beta value; the core lies in its unique commercialization path and network effects. Kevin Lee stated that Bitcoin's returns are not driven by a single risk factor, but rather by structural factors such as network expansion, increased institutional participation, improved compliance infrastructure, and the implementation of on-chain applications. Its attributes dynamically switch with the market environment: during periods of macroeconomic shocks, it exhibits characteristics of a risky asset; during periods of technological iteration and increased adoption, Bitcoin releases non-systematic excess returns, i.e., alpha. He emphasized that beta and alpha values rely on linear regression models for calculation, and are affected by data intervals and statistical frequencies, making it difficult to objectively define Bitcoin's true risk-return structure. While models can explain its historical performance, they cannot constrain Bitcoin's future. The Bitcoin network is still expanding and its risk-reward structure is constantly evolving. This dynamic growth and uniqueness is the core of its long-term investment value and also confirms the allocation logic that "proportionally including it in the portfolio can optimize the effective frontier".