FeaturesNext week's macro outlook: New tariff red line triggers the "final battle"
According to Coinnet, market risk sentiment was positive this week, with reports of a trade breakthrough between the EU and the US triggering a sharp rally in global markets. Consequently, demand for the US dollar was strong, while the euro and yen fell sharply as the US's improved trade position led to a rotation into US dollar assets. A confusing non-farm payroll report, coupled with mixed corrections, impacted various asset classes. Bonds and gold rallied on safe-haven demand. Following the release of the non-farm payroll report, gold prices rose $40, erasing all previous losses, closing the week at $3,363 per ounce, up 0.79%. The following are key market events to watch in the new week:
Tuesday, 9:45 PM: Final S&P Global Services PMI for July
Thursday, 3:10 AM: Speaker Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and a voting member of the FOMC for 2027. Thursday at 8:30 PM: US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 2nd.
Thursday at 10:00 PM: 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will participate in a fireside chat.
Thursday at 11:00 PM: New York Fed's July 1-year inflation forecast.
Friday at 10:20 PM: 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Moussallem will speak.
The new tariffs will take effect on August 7th, instead of the previous date of August 1st, giving countries another window to negotiate a reduction. Furthermore, while two governors voted for a 25 basis point rate cut, the overall tone of the statement and Powell's comments was remarkably neutral, suggesting that while the Fed has left the door open for a September rate cut, it hasn't ruled out a rate hike if higher tariffs and a tight labor market lead to further inflation.