作者：货币探险家

The gold market continues to frustrate investors as it has now experienced its second single-day drop of 4% since the US and Israel began their war against Iran—a war that is creating significant economic uncertainty and driving up energy prices and inflation.

Spot gold is currently trading around $4,656 per ounce, its lowest level since the sharp sell-off following its record high of nearly $5,600 in January.

Although gold prices may continue to decline in the short term, a fund manager said,It is precisely during these periods of correction and short-term volatility that investors can make real profits, as growing government debt and limited central bank action will continue to support long-term gold price increases.

In an interview with Kitco News, Tavi Costa, founder and CEO of Azuria Capital, stated that...He believes the current pullback in gold prices is just noise, and that precious metals are in what he considers a larger, still-early bull market—a bull market increasingly driven by structural forces reshaping the mining industry and the global economy itself.

Costa stated that although gold is facing pressure from tightening liquidity and shifting interest rate expectations, macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong in supporting gold prices.

"The probability of this cycle ending is zero,"He said.

He explained that he believes the key driver behind gold's long-term price movement is not short-term market sentiment, but rather the unsustainability of global debt. Governments, especially the US government, are facing rising interest costs, which are crowding out other forms of spending. Therefore, he expects policymakers to prioritize lowering interest rates—regardless of inflation data or traditional economic signals—to alleviate the debt burden. He believes this shift will be a strong tailwind for gold.

Costa made these remarks as the US government debt has now exceeded $39 trillion. A growing number of market participants anticipate that the cost of a war with Iran will further exacerbate the situation.US debt could reach $40 trillion by fall..

This macro framework was also the core theme of Costa's speech at the Exploration and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) 2026 Annual Conference, where he outlined what he believes to be a historic turning point for hard assets.

Costa stated that even with gold's outstanding performance last year, the sector remains undervalued and under-allocated relative to the scale of the opportunity. He pointed out that today, U.S. gold reserves account for only about 3% of federal debt, compared to approximately 51% in the 1940s.

He believes this imbalance highlights how much room there is for gold prices to be repriced if governments begin to rebuild reserves or restore confidence in their balance sheets.

At the same time, he believes a major structural shift is underway in global reserve management. Many countries—especially emerging market countries—are increasingly turning to gold and reducing their reliance on US Treasury bonds. This trend, coupled with the possibility of a prolonged weakening of the US dollar, reinforces his bullish outlook on precious metals.

“In this situation, many people tend to think in the short term and believe that the basic logic has changed,” he said."But this is your time to accumulate wealth. You should buy more when prices fall. This is the time for those with strong convictions to buy, not sell—and that's who I am."

However, Costa's belief extends beyond gold to mining stocks as well. He stated that the industry is in "the early stages of a major cycle," with capital flows poised to accelerate.

He believes thatOne of the most striking aspects of the current market is the disconnect between metal prices and mining valuations.Even with soaring gold and silver prices, many producers are trading at relatively modest valuation multiples, and in some cases, their profit margins are comparable to those of tech companies, while their production costs are far below current metal prices.

Costa attributed this valuation gap to investors' skepticism about the sustainability of rising precious metal prices, but he said such skepticism was unfounded. He explained that supply constraints across the mining industry are becoming increasingly severe and are unlikely to be resolved quickly.

According to data highlighted by Costa at PDAC, the industry has made almost no major discoveries in the past two years—an unprecedented situation in the history of modern mining.

After years of underinvestment in exploration and development, the shortage of new mineral deposits has become a prominent issue. Capital expenditure across the commodities industry has been significantly constrained since the last cycle, limiting future supply reserves. Therefore, Costa believes that...The industry is entering a prolonged period of tight supply and structurally high prices.