Author：Wall Street CN

Trump vowed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked by Iran, but military experts warn that both maritime escorts and ground seizures would require thousands of troops and months of effort, and would still not completely eliminate the threat. The confidence of the shipping and insurance industries is the ultimate threshold for the restoration of normal oil flows.

Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have repeatedly pledged to send warships to escort oil tankers through the region. On Thursday, Trump said the escort operation would begin "soon"; on Friday, he ordered a Marine Expeditionary Force equipped with attack aircraft, ships, and approximately 2,200 Marines to the Middle East; on Saturday, he appealed on social media for countries such as France and the UK to send ships to assist. The White House stated that all options, including deploying ground troops, are under consideration.

However, the U.S. has not yet sent warships to this strait, which is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point.Navy officials warned that Iranian drones and anti-ship missiles could turn the waters into a "kill zone" for U.S. sailors.Despite weeks of combined US-Israeli strikes that have severely damaged Iran's navy and military, its commanders continue to demonstrate their offensive capabilities.

According to shipping analysis firm Lloyd's List Intelligence, even if the escort operation is launched, security measures and the limited number of available warships will reduce the passage through the strait to 10% of normal levels. Currently, more than 600 international trade vessels are stranded in the Persian Gulf, and at this rate, it will take several months to clear the backlog.

Escort operations: High costs and remaining risks

Effective escort requires approximately two warships per tanker, or about 12 warships for a convoy of 5 to 10 tankers, to establish a sufficient air defense system. The short engagement distance within the strait significantly increases the difficulty of intercepting incoming missiles and drones.

Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a veteran naval officer, estimates that...In addition to warships, the escort operation also requires at least 12 MQ-9 Reaper drones to continuously patrol and strike Iranian missile and drone launchers that appear along the coastline."This means thousands of soldiers and sailors, a considerable financial investment, and could last for months," Clark said. Other military experts have suggested incorporating Marine Corps Harrier jump jets and other aircraft into the escort support system.

Deploying warships to escort missions means stripping them of their offensive capabilities and broader missile defense capabilities. Even so, the risks cannot be ignored—Iran's anti-ship cruise missiles are highly mobile and can quickly relocate to launch "hit-and-run" attacks, capable of severely damaging or even sinking warships and merchant ships.

Ground capture: Larger scale, doubled risks -

A more expansionist option is to raid or occupy Iran’s southern coast to cut off Iran’s ability to fire on ships in the straits.This could require thousands of ground troops and involve months of attrition in the face of fierce resistance from a regime fighting for its survival.

The typical path for such operations is to first launch a large-scale air campaign along the coast, followed by an amphibious assault by the Marines in the rugged terrain of southern Iran. However, Iran may respond with a "cat-and-mouse game," quickly redeploying its defenses after the US withdrawal; maintaining continued control over the region would effectively amount to an invasion of Iran.

Former State Department and senior intelligence advisor Daniel Byman pointed out, "If you initially deploy only a limited number of special forces, do you need more troops to protect them? You have to decide whether to cut your losses or continue to escalate." Danny Citrinowicz, former head of Israel's defense intelligence agency on Iran, emphasized that every step of the operation requires ample time—planning takes time, weakening Iran's capabilities takes time, and dismantling the Revolutionary Guard's command and control system also takes time.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) currently has approximately 190,000 troops, and its elite Quds Force has a long history of supporting armed proxies in the Middle East and has a history of launching deadly attacks against U.S. forces in neighboring countries such as Iraq. Furthermore, even control of the Straits cannot completely eliminate the threat—Iran possesses longer-range missiles and drones capable of launching attacks from deep inland. This week, Iran also attacked an oil tanker hundreds of miles north of the Straits, in waters near Iraq.

Even if the escort mission succeeds, traffic volume will be less than 10% of normal levels.

Military force might be able to suppress some threats, but convincing the shipping industry to resume using the Straits is another matter entirely. "You have to convince insurance companies and shipping companies that transit is safe enough," said Mick Mulroy, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Affairs.

according toPrevious articles from Wall Street InsightsEight security experts from the naval and commercial operations sectors consulted by Lloyd's List believe that even if the escort plan is ultimately implemented, the number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz daily will be strictly reduced to less than 10% of the normal level.

The report points out that under normal circumstances, approximately 45 to 50 oil tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily. A basic escort plan requires 8 to 10 destroyers to escort 5 to 10 commercial vessels each time.Due to the narrowness of the strait, it is almost impossible to escort ships in both directions simultaneously. The initial plan will prioritize the outbound transportation to alleviate the export backlog in the Middle East Gulf region.

Mike Plunket, senior naval platforms analyst at Jane's Intelligence, points out:

"We're obviously not discussing the size of the Atlantic convoys during World War II, because the waterways here are extremely limited. You simply couldn't let 30 oil tankers pass through at the same time, nor would you have enough frigates to protect them. It was really more like four or five oil tankers with two or three frigates."