Author：Currency Explorer
A research report from Citadel Securities argues that the rapid expansion of AI is unlikely to trigger mass unemployment, a view that contradicts a widely circulated report this week that caused market turmoil.
Macro strategist Frank Flight wrote in a report on Tuesday that history shows that..."The waves of technological change have neither led to runaway exponential growth nor made the workforce redundant."
His comments stemmed from a previous report by Citrini Research, which envisioned a world by 2028 where rapid advancements in AI would dramatically boost productivity but simultaneously disrupt multiple industries, resulting in the loss of numerous white-collar jobs. This dystopian scenario triggered a sell-off in tech stocks on Monday and sparked heated debate among investors and policymakers, with one senior White House economist dismissing the report as "science fiction."
Flett pointed out that,Current data shows almost no indication that AI is having a widespread impact on the labor market.He cited a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and labor market indicators he tracks. He noted that job postings for software engineers, a role considered vulnerable to automation, have increased significantly in recent months; meanwhile, construction hiring appears to be recovering, supported by a boom in AI-related data center projects.
Historically, technological change typically follows an S-curve: initial adoption is slow, accelerates as costs decrease, and eventually levels off as the market approaches saturation. He stated that as technology diffusion slows, the risk of a sudden, large-scale replacement of labor also decreases.
He said that under the current circumstances, if the marginal cost of computing power used for AI is higher than the marginal cost of human labor, then the process of "replacing humans with robots" will not occur.
He believes thatRather than replacing human workers, "AI is more likely to supplement the workforce in many fields."This is similar to previous technological revolutions. "To properly define this discussion, one only needs to ask one question: Is Microsoft Office a supplement to or a replacement for office workers?" Flett writes.
Citrini's research suggests that,The disruptive power of AI means that existing jobs will be replaced faster than new jobs will be created.Its founder, James van Geelen, described the report as...A hypothetical scenario, and it is emphasized that this is "not a prediction".
But Flett countered that in such a scenario, the government would likely respond to labor shortages and buffer the shock through regulation and fiscal stimulus, thereby limiting the speed of replacement. He wrote:
"For AI to cause a sustained negative demand shock, the economy must simultaneously exhibit a significantly accelerated adoption rate, near-complete labor substitution, no fiscal response, negligible investment absorption capacity, and unrestricted expansion of computing power."
