Author：BlockBeats
Original title: ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, makes a major move, combining index futures contracts with market sentiment forecasting tools.
Original author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily
Yesterday, following January"Plan to launch a tokenized securities trading and on-chain settlement platform that supports 24/7 trading."Following the major news, ICE Group (Intercontinental Exchange), the parent company of the NYSE, has dropped two more bombshells – firstly, the launch of seven new stocks.CoinDesk Index Cryptocurrency Futures ContractsFurthermore, it plans to launch a one-month CoinDesk Overnight Rate (CDOR) USDC futures contract based on the CoinDesk overnight rate (pending approval); secondly, it will launch the Polymarket signal and sentiment tool, providing institutional investors with market signals such as predictive market data and analysis. These actions indicate that ICE Group, the parent company of the NYSE, one of the largest stock trading platforms in the US, is building its own "new nine-child ecosystem."
In an era where traditional financial markets and cryptocurrency markets are deeply intertwined, the ICE Group has transformed from a behind-the-scenes player into a trendsetter.
ICE launches CoinDesk cryptocurrency futures contracts: providing more options for the securities market.
In our previous article, "NYSE Plans to Launch 24/7 Stock Tokenization Trading, 'Competitors' Are Stunned," we provided a detailed analysis of the NYSE's ambition to integrate liquidity in the TradFi and DeFi markets, and also listed both positive and negative viewpoints from the market at that time.
In less than a month, ICE Group, the parent company of the NYSE, broke its silence and stepped into the spotlight, launching seven Coindesk cryptocurrency futures contracts that are more aligned with native crypto metrics. These include: ICE CoinDesk 20 Index Futures, ICE CoinDesk 5 Index Futures, ICE CoinDesk Bitcoin Futures, ICE CoinDesk Ether Futures, ICE CoinDesk Solana Futures, ICE CoinDesk XRP Futures, and ICE CoinDesk BNB Futures. All contracts are denominated in US dollars and settled in cash.
It is worth mentioning here that,Crypto futures contracts related to the Coindesk index offer the following advantages:
• 1. Historic – CoinDesk indices have been operating since 2014, and its flagship indices, such as the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX), have always been regarded as one of the industry's fundamental indicators. BTC ETFs such as BlackRock also use it as one of their reference indicators, and currently more than $40 billion in assets (such as ETFs and funds) are linked to the index.
• 2. Broad Coverage – The CoinDesk 20 Index covers approximately 90% of mainstream cryptocurrencies, employing a market capitalization weighted index with a cap to avoid dominance by a single asset and meeting institutional investment standards. The total market capitalization of related products exceeds $16 billion. The CoinDesk 5 Index tracks the performance of the five largest constituent stocks by market capitalization in the CoinDesk 20 Index, satisfying the requirements for index balance while also taking into account the market position of high-market-cap cryptocurrencies.
3. First-mover advantage – ICE Group previously partnered with CoinDesk Indices on Singapore futures products. CoinDesk Indices’ transparency and data quality meet regulatory compliance requirements and help ICE Group rapidly expand its crypto product line while lowering the barrier to entry for investment institutions.
Thus, ICE introduced crypto futures contracts into the traditional financial trading market through the Coindesk index, providing professional institutional investors with more trading options; it also indirectly introduced more liquidity into the cryptocurrency market—with the help of seven dollar-denominated, cash-settled Coindesk index cryptocurrency futures contracts, institutional traders can flexibly hedge risky assets and diversify their asset allocation.
The subsequent ICE Group's plan to promote the "one-month CoinDesk Overnight Rate (CDOR) USDC futures" product further expands the influence of the cryptocurrency market on traditional financial markets.
It's no exaggeration to say that ICE's move marks the first time a traditional securities trading platform has introduced derivatives based on on-chain DeFi interest rates. This also signifies that the annualized overnight lending rate of on-chain lending protocols has gained recognition from the traditional financial market, making it easier for investors to hedge USDC borrowing costs or lock in yields. Regardless of the product's price performance after launch, this is a historic step. At a time when the crypto market is in a downturn, it's tantamount to injecting fresh blood into it.
If we compare the traditional financial market to a farmers' market, the launch of the Coindesk index cryptocurrency futures contract is like the ICE Group, the "vegetable stall," offering customers more "vegetables"; while the launch of Polymarket's signal and sentiment tools is like the ICE Group providing "vegetable buyers" (Odaily Planet Daily note: i.e., professional investment institutions and investors) with more "vegetable price impact indicators" to help them make effective decisions about "which vegetables to buy".
ICE Group launches Polymarket signaling and sentiment tools: an "information shovel" for investors.
Last September, ICE Group invested a whopping $2 billion in Polymarket at a valuation of $9 billion. At that time, the prediction market was on the eve of a major trading boom, with monthly trading volume hovering around $5 billion. However, with the overall decline of the crypto market, the successive occurrence of prediction events, and the strong support from capital institutions, the entire prediction market sector experienced a surge in trading volume starting in the fourth quarter of last year—monthly trading volume broke new records one after another, with November's trading volume quickly exceeding $13 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of more than four times compared to the US presidential election year of 2024.
Since then, Polymarket, touted as "the world's largest prediction market platform," has experienced a new surge in valuation, trading volume, and user numbers. Compared to traditional polls and data research institutions, prediction markets offer more direct and collectively intelligent information indicators, thus attracting increasing attention.
To some extent, the probability trends of various betting events on Polymarket are the best "risk signal indicators," and ICE Group values this aspect of its decision-making assistance.
As Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan stated, "Prediction markets reflect near-real-time collective expectations of market-driving events and have become a reliable source of information beyond traditional data sources."
Similarly, we will give two simple examples to illustrate the specific role of this event.
First, betting events on Polymarkets, such as "the timing and method of a US attack on Iran," can provide supplementary information for energy asset traders and hedge funds. If the probability of such an event suddenly increases and trading volume rises rapidly, it often means that the situation in some regions is tense, and the price of energy such as oil is likely to surge. Institutional investors can take this opportunity to build positions in advance to profit, or buy safe-haven assets and sell risky assets.
Second, various weather and climate betting events on Polymarket can serve as important supplementary information for institutional investors to judge the production and price trends of major agricultural commodities such as corn and soybeans, as well as the rise and fall of related concept stocks. The real-time "event probability trends" on the prediction market platform can directly help investment institutions adjust their portfolios before weather events actually affect the supply chain/prices, avoiding asset losses due to concentrated holdings of high-risk stocks.
In other words, predicting various betting events in the market can identify abnormal factors ahead of others, thereby concretizing the potential impact on related assets.
It's worth noting that Polymarket's data is not the only source of information that ICE Group provides to institutional investors; previous sources also included data from Reddit and Dow Jones. This cross-validation of multiple sources further enhances the accuracy and sensitivity of ICE Group's market signals and sentiment tools.
By leveraging this "truth machine" powered by real money, ICE Group essentially opens a window of probability for institutional investors to "see the future in advance."
In summary, ICE Group is building its own "crypto empire".
Last September, the U.S. SEC's Cryptocurrency Task Force held talks with the NYSE and ICE Group on cryptocurrency regulation, covering topics such as crypto derivatives and tokenized stock trading. Prior to this, ICE Group had reached agreements with Circle and Chainlink on USDC integration and on-chain data for foreign exchange and precious metals.
Based on available information, under the crypto-friendly regulatory environment created by the Trump administration, ICE Group is making great strides into the "crypto finance era," building its own "crypto empire" through investments, partnerships, and expanding its trading portfolio.
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