Markus Thielen, who leads the digital asset investment research firm 10x Research, has predicted Bitcoin could experience a 60% drawdown tied to the 2026 US midterm election cycle.

Thielen points to past midterm cycles that triggered major Bitcoin selloffs and warns that weakening institutional flows and bearish on-chain signals could amplify downside pressure this time around.

“Bitcoin actually has tended to go down by you know around 60% on average during those years, unless we really come into a period where inflation prints lower, where the Fed becomes really incredibly dovish, which they might become with a new Fed chair,” Thielen noted in a recent interview with CoinDesk.

“The newer wallets are all underwater now by 10%, 20%. And at one point, they just have to sell,” he added.

The research firm specializes in analyzing market trends, derivatives positioning, and funding dynamics for digital assets. Recent studies have linked Bitcoin’s potential downside to unexpected macroeconomic triggers beyond traditional market factors.