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How are Rollups doing in the post Cancun upgrade era?
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BCrypto Pioneer
2024-07-24 17:00
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The upgrade in Cancun greatly reduces the operating costs of Dapp Rollup, promoting more Dapps to choose Rollup paradigm reconstruction.
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Author:Token Analyst

Author: NingNing Source: X, @ 0xNing The core upgrade EIP4844 of Cancun upgrade stores L2 batch state data to the newly added Blob space on the Ethereum mainnet. We know that Rollup's design architecture is actually reselling Ethereum mainnet block space to developers and consumers. There are two core business models for Rollup: building a truly thriving Rollup ecosystem, and then making money from the interaction between developers and consumers through L1<>L2 Gas price differentials and sequencer MEV profits. Companies that adopt this business model include Arbitrarum, Optimism (via super chain ecosystem), Base, etc., which use airdrop expectations to continuously attract Odyssey PUA users, and then make money from the interaction between developers and consumers through L1<>L2 Gas price difference and sequencer MEV revenue. Companies that adopt this business model include ZKSync, Scroll, Linea, and others. The extreme compression of data availability fees from L2 to L1 in the Cancun upgrade resulted in an order of magnitude decrease in the average gas cost for deploying the Cancun upgrade in L2. Ethereum attempts to leverage the Cancun upgrade to strengthen L1's dominance over the current Rollup Centric Ethereum ecosystem, promoting explosive growth in Rollup numbers through cost reduction and efficiency enhancement. But intentionally or unintentionally, it destroyed the economic foundation of Rollup, which adopted the second core business model. The first and foremost is ZkSync. After the upgrade in Cancun, ZkSync immediately supported this new feature, but the effect was poor. The geometric reduction in gas fees did not bring the expected user growth and ecological prosperity, but instead led to a halving of Rollup L1-L2 gas price difference income. Due to the poor ecological development of ZkSync, the growth of MEV income cannot compensate for the sharp decline in L1-L2 Gas price difference income. Helpless, ZKSync had no choice but to airdrop during the June rebound window, in order to partially exit by selling tokens in the secondary market. And its friends Scroll and Linea, on the other hand, resisted community and market pressure, delaying the deployment of the Cancun upgrade as much as possible and continuing to maintain L2 high gas fees to earn price differentials; Maintain the bottom line of not airdropping or issuing coins, and continue PUA user interaction. From on chain data, after February, Roll and Linea's Rollup revenue significantly surpassed ZKSync. I don't think the Scroll and Linea teams will have any idea of airdropping coins until the next Ethereum mainnet Pectra upgrade changes the game rules. The 'electronic beggars' should be mentally prepared and expected to manage it. However, Rollup, which adopted the first business model, encountered different challenges, mainly due to the siphoning effect of the Solana MeMe craze on the funding and users of the Ethereum ecosystem. Fortunately, the SocialFi and MeMe sections of the Base chain have emerged as a shield for the Ethereum ecosystem to resist the onslaught of Solana barbarians, and Rollup revenue has also skyrocketed, maintaining first place for four consecutive months. Due to the fact that Base is built using OP Stack and belongs to the super chain members of Optimism, Optimism's Rollup revenue has also benefited from the positive externalities of Base's ecological prosperity, achieving growth after the upgrade in Cancun. And the former leader Arbitrum, due to excessive betting on Web3 games and slow strategic actions in Rollup Stack, saw a decline in Rollup revenue in April and May, but quickly recovered in July. Finally, the upgrade in Cancun greatly reduced the operating costs of Dapp Rollup, promoting more Dapps to choose Rollup paradigm refactoring (such as Frax, Uniswap, AAVE, etc.).
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